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Morgan Stanley Reaserch: New Jersey sports betting manage rose 128% y/y on a packed calendar vs. July +25%/ decreases March-June. iGaming income grew 114% however slowed from recent months. Sports betting revs will likely beat our 3Q est but absence of significant sports in Nov/Dec suggest year in line. Casino revs fell (31 )% vs. July (47 )%.

NJ's Division of Gaming Enforcement launched Aug sports wagering, online gambling, and gambling establishment (slot/table) revenue information today. Sports wagering & iGaming earnings together increased 92% y/y to $127m from $66m last year, down a little from 105/104% in July/June, but greater than March/April/May +10/ 43/78%. Including physical casino income that declined (31 )% in Aug, all-in revenue was down (7.5 )% to $326m, better than July down (21 )%. As a suggestion, the majority of NJ gambling establishments re-opened 7/2 with 25% video gaming capacity/no F&B. We highlight CZR and WMH as our favored plays on the nascent US sports wagering/ iGaming chance, where we see more undiscovered value.

New record for sports wagering volumes. NJ's Aug sports wagering manage increased 128% y/y to $668m, setting a brand-new record vs. $563m in Nov '19. Handle had actually increased only 25% in July (to $315m), while June was down (40 )%/ May (63 )%/ April (83 )%/ March (51 )%. Aug handle increased 112% m/m, which was lower than IN's up 140% (report), though NJ is more fully grown having introduced online in Aug '19 vs. IN Oct '19. With NJ casino traffic still low, we highlight that online sports betting deal with increased 142% y/y vs. July 39%/ June down (27 )%/ May (55 )%/ April (79 )%/ March (45 )%. While we generally view the amount wagered in Aug as favorable, we highlight outcomes taken advantage of having NBA, MLB, and NHL playing vs. typically only MLB. We anticipate promos (complimentary bets) were also high. Amounts bet need to remain strong in Sept provided all 4 big leagues will be playing vs. just the NFL and MLB in 2015. However, we beware Nov-Dec might soften as it will see just 2 months of NFL and 1 month of NHL (possibly) vs. NBA, NFL, and NHL all playing in 2015. Net-net, there are 11 more cumulative months of the 4 significant sports leagues playing through YE vs. 12 in 2015.

Sports wagering profits in line, with small share motions. Aug revenue was $40m, growing 57% y/y, showing 6% hold (vs. Aug '19 9%/ historical avg 7%). Revenue was above July $30m (9% hold), June $13m (8% hold) and Aug '19 $25m (9% hold). NJ sports wagering earnings of $66m over the previous two months recommends NJ will likely exceed our $101m 3Qe, but there's danger 4Q underperforms our $164m price quote (+50% y/y) with fewer significant sports in session. In Aug, FanDuel-Pointsbet-Meadowlands reported 54% market share, up from July 48%/ June 48%/ YTD 51%, while DraftKings-FOX Bet-Resorts posted 25% vs. July 28%/ June 31%/ May 38%/ YTD 29%. It appears William Hill held its share at ~ 10%, though it runs throughout numerous shared licenses.

iGaming remained strong. NJ iGaming earnings was $88m in Aug, up somewhat vs. July $87.5 m/June $85m/May $86m, though development was slightly lower at up 114% y/y vs. the previous 3 months each up 123-124%. Revenue is now run-rating $1.1 B on an annualized basis vs. our 2020/2021 market quotes of $945m/$1.0 B, and 3Q is now tracking to $263m (straight-line) vs. MSe $260m. We had anticipated strong growth from stay-at-home tailwinds however saw risk of more significant deceleration due to improving physical casino traffic driving churn of March-July sign-ups. NJ iGaming income is now $598M YTD, up 101% y/y, and $783m TTM, up 93% y/y. Market shares were reasonably comparable m/m, with the exception of (incl. FanDuel) being up to 32% (from July 36%/ June 34%). Resorts (incl. DKNG) had 20% share vs. July 21%/ June 20%, Caesars 11% vs. July 11%/ June 10%, Tropicana 7% (in line with July/June), and Acid Rock 7% vs. July 6%/ June 7%. We continue to think the financial impact of COVID-19 paired with strong current iGaming results in both NJ and PA should stimulate more states to legalize, though have seen more momentum for sports betting.

Still too early to read into gambling establishment results. Aug casino revenue decreased (31 )% y/y to $199m, was lower on an outright basis vs. July $147m, though July was down (47 )%. Casinos re-opened on 7/2 but some reopened later on e.g. Borgata 7/26, and 25% capability limits/ lack of indoor dining stay significant headwinds. By contrast, Las Vegas Strip gambling establishment earnings decreased (39 )% y/y in July after falling (61 )% in June after re-opening 6/4. Regional markets are performing much better, with MD July/Aug income down (6 )/( 3 )% after re-opening 6/19, OH July/Aug earnings +12/ 5% after re-opening 6/19, and MO profits down (9 )/( 13 )% after re-opening 6/1, though IL July/Aug income decreased (29 )/( 26 )% after re-opening 7/1. In NJ, Ocean gambling establishment earnings especially outshined with profits up 1% y/y to $24m, while the other casinos saw double-digit y/y income decreases.